Thoughts:

Loses a ton of money now. Plans to lose a ton of money in the future. Never been GAAP profitable.

Significantly power constrained. Maxing out our power grids. Building gigawatts of gas turbines to plug the gap. Hydrocarbons are facing Iran war prices.

Financed with circular financing. $3T dollars worth of unfunded debt obligations. Bond markets making raising cash more expensive. Will be competing with absolutely free models that can run on consumer GPUs.

Mathematically guaranteed to be a dirt cheap, no margin business. Depends on being a third of the entire economy’s profits. Valued at close to 50x revenue. India and China will use Chinese models. Market price is falling faster than any commodity in history.

Once you cure cancer you don’t need to do it again. Your cure isn’t copyrightable because it’s the output of a machine. Our biggest problem is climate change, which it makes worse. If you can reliably solve Millennium problems for $15M dollars, no company will ever approve an >$15M dollar project, they will demand efficiencies instead. Distilling a trillion parameter model for a single use case takes tens of thousands of dollars, not millions.

Their profitability also faces significant algorithmic risk. Significantly cheaper training or inference techniques can power multi order of magnitude demand reductions. JEV’s type-safe interface offered an over 400x reduction in decision-making costs, a feature OpenAI was forced to offer within two weeks. There is no guarantee Astra’s coding power cannot be distilled to a 27B dense model. GPT-4o is roughly equal to Qwen 4B on pure reasoning benchmarks.

Many non-coding features are simply good enough. AI images do not need to be harder to detect. Video generation does not need to be more realistic. Voice cloning does not need to improve. People don’t them included in their media, the direction of popular demand is for less.

AI is so unpopular in the real world it has activist bipartisan opposition. It is strangling the internet. Tripling hardware prices. Causing socially ruinous volumes of spam. Destroying jobs. Destroying job satisfaction. Destroying the value of other sectors. Empowering scammers at scale. Interfering with student educations. It causes psychiatric problems in a significant portion of users.

Run by sociopaths. Sold to the military. Advertised as likely to kill us all. No regulation at all.

There is an obvious bubble coming, if you really want to own shares you’ll be able to buy them after it pops for a fraction of this price. This is a bad investment. The emperor has no clothes.